#Leave – Really?


Real statistics – UK Motor IndustryThere isn’t any logical, substantiated, reliable argument for leaving the EU and / or voting ‘Leave’ on 23rd June, UK EU Referendum – only pure gain say.

The other man’s grass……

Boris is cynically positioning himself to graciously accept defeat & take over from Dave with Gove as Chancellor, George O’ is trying to cover the bases but knows he’s screwed no matter which way it goes.  Dave knows it’s over – he cannot come out of this smelling of anything but manure.

Don’t care; won’t vote?  So you relinquish your right to complain – you get what you didn’t vote for.

Politics (from Greek: πολιτικός politikos, definition “of, for, or relating to citizens”) is the process of making uniform decisions applying to all members of a group.   It also involves the use of power by one person to affect the behaviour of another person.

Democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members – UK citizens over 18.

Wake up!

On the first day of the D-Day landings on the beaches of Normandy, 10,000 men (just  men) were killed.

Millions of men women & children had and would die before the war was over.

That war gave us the freedom not to care, however, it also gave us the obligation to value our freedom and give a dam!

Some people say, both Leave and Remain sides can only guess what might follow, although Remain is probably more predictable.

Leave cannot predict anything because they do not know how every other country around the world, and the EU, and currently UK based global companies will react – too many unpredictable variables.

Remain has the benefit of hindsight and models based on real experience, facts and figures.

Looking at the key manufacturing sector, no one has been able to predict what the UK’s biggest car makers will do:

Aston Martin (UK – German engines)

Bentley (VAG (VW)) (German)

BMW (German)

Ford (USA / German)

Honda (Japan)

Jaguar Land Rover (India)

MG (China)

Mini (German)

Nissan (Japan)

Rolls-Royce (BMW) (German)

Toyota (Japan)

Vauxhall  (GM) (USA / German)

As of 2014 there were approximately 35 active, and over 500 defunct, British car manufacturers

Reported in 2015, Britain’s auto industry turned over a record £69.5bn, an increase of 6.6% on 2013, and 65.1% higher than in 2000; demonstrating the health of the UK’s car and commercial vehicle manufacturing sector, along with the supply chains of businesses which feed them.Employment in the sector grew strongly by 3.5pc over the year to 799,000, although down 11.9pc on the 907,000 employed back in 2000, largely because manufacturing processes have become less labour intensive and more efficient.  Robots only need to be trained once and they can fulfil their role anywhere at the same negligible cost.

This year’s (2016) figures are due in a couple of weeks.

These companies and all of their employees pay significant taxes.  Every sale in the UK and EU attracts VAT.  The same is true for the hundreds of companies and employees in the supply chains.

In January, 2016, EU demand for British built motor cars was reported as growing by 11.3%, with 57.5% of exports destined for the continent.

eu motor sales map.png

In 2015, the appetite across the globe, for cars made in Britain, was considerable, demonstrating the strength and diversity of the products and brands, but not necessarily where they were made.  In the US, demand rose by 26.5%, ahead of the next biggest market, China, however, the UK’s biggest trading destination remains the EU.

Demand for cars manufactured in the UK by customers in the UK rose by 8.1%. One in seven new cars registered in the UK in 2015 was made in Britain, however, this includes many of the brands mentioned above, from outside the UK.

So the UK car manufacturing sector, made up of companies from around the world, is blossoming and, significantly, access to the EU single market is an important factor in the choice of location for the manufacturers

Thousands of international companies have their EMEA operations / manufacturing / head offices / presence in the UK in order to benefit from tariff free access to the EU single market, at the same time as enjoying easier labour laws than elsewhere in the EU.

If the Leave campaign gets its way, they may well all move – to Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece, Poland, Romania, Hungary, etc.; all of whom would welcome them with open arms and, more than likely, secure substantial EU financial support.  As a consequence Scotland & Wales will surely ask the EU if they can stay (& give a home to the car makers etc.), whereupon the Borders’ issue would become really significant – surrounded by EU countries, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, France, Netherlands, etc. there is no way we could stop people smuggling  into the UK – or any other smuggling for that matter.  Leaving the EU will never stop people (and contraband) illegally coming to the UK.

BMW & FORD will move to Germany (or elsewhere).   TATA has received £millions from the UK & EU to successfully rebuild JLR.

TATA has already opened a plant in China and a small facility in India and is also already set to build factories in Brazil and Slovakia and has agreed a contract with Magna Steyr for production in Austria.– there will be no real reason to stay in the UK when JLR can produce cars more cheaply and access the single market from elsewhere within the EU.

Dick Elsy, now chief executive of the High Value Manufacturing Catapult research centres and a former product development director at Jaguar, said: “You can’t just stop production to add in new lines at existing facilities – that’s probably why they are going for Greenfield sites abroad.” An alternative view might be that JLR is hedging against the risk of UK EU self-exile.


Real democracy means active citizens.

The biggest lie; the argument spouted by the thickest and the richest LEAVERS; “It can’t be any worse”

Do you really believe that?

The statement might be more plausible if changed into a question;  “It can’t be any worse, can it?”

Well, yes it can.

Professional politicians will always lie; it’s in the job description.

Tory MP Sarah Wollaston has quit the #Brexit #Leave campaign and will vote for #Remain instead.  Dr. Wollaston, chair of the health select committee, said Vote Leave’s claim that £350m a week would be freed up for the NHS “simply isn’t true”.

You have to make up your own mind and that’s not easy and, yes, it involves work.

Regrettably, abdication is an option but failure to fulfil a responsibility or duty, is also a dereliction.

Let’s explore the automotive sector a little further.

If TATA (who are once again going to receive a UK HMG bailout vis the Steel Industry & a £2bn pension fund black hole), for instance, decided to sell the 300+acres of prime real estate off Lode Lane, Solihull, where Rovers, Land Rovers, Range Rovers, Discovery. Triumphs, wartime tanks & boats, London Taxi engines, etc. have been built for probably approaching 100 years, TATA might realise maybe £1,800M.

Greece, Spain and even France would be happy to receive the inward investment of migrating car plants & I have no doubt that the newly formed EU, without England, would be very happy to fund the migration – & the migrants would follow the jobs.  But when up to 800.000+ people in the UK are out of work, and the taxes & other revenues from those industries are no longer coming in who will pay the NHS bill?

There’s a classic BS argument about the sales of new cars in the UK from France & Germany being uninterrupted – really – where’s the money coming from to buy them if we’re all out of work & the country is in financial meltdown as the jobs follow the factories and the bread winners follow the jobs, & the best brains, minds & professionals leave for countries that appreciate & can afford them.

Do not kid yourself by believing those who say that won’t happen, or the manufacturers couldn’t afford it, because they can afford it and will move or simply shut up shop – & redundancy payments whether legislated by EU law or Tory dogma, do not last long; & that’s when the retail & service sectors collapse.

Everything is connected, & a vote to leave the EU would be like slashing the cords of your parachute whilst assuming you can deploy the reserve before you hit the concrete.

Gotta love the gloom & doom pictures painted. So back to the toilets.

There are plenty of willing recipients for the fruit of UK stupidity, & whilst I don’t like to cast aspersions, who is less stupid; Osborne or Gove, Farage or Mandelson, Borris or Dave, Obama or Trump, ?

Don’t sit on your hands and don’t think it’s not your concern because you’ll be long gone, or you’re too young to know, or you don’t know all the facts so you can’t decide.

Exercise your democratic right.  If you don’t understand the arguments the look at the protagonists and decide who you least and most trust.  Talk to your children because they’re the poor buggers who’ve going to have to clear up the mess. You might want to ask them if it will affect the quality of the end of life nursing home / care they can buy for you.

Yes, I guess I care.

Amazing – no one wants to talk about something which could have an enormous detrimental effect but everyone seems happy discussing a hypothetical economic theory which (currently) has zero relevance.

Man Up people – there’s a 400Mb gorilla in the room.

Vote ‘Leave’ and see your country disappear down the pan.  Yes, it will solve the migration problem – who would want to live in a country with rising unemployment, a faltering Health Service, rising taxes and interest rates, a massive pensions and elderly care problem, where you have to work until you’re 70 before you can retire on a State Pension, but where there are no jobs because all of the industries have left and gone to Spain, Greece, France, Romania, Poland, China, India, everywhere but here.

LEAVE = WASTELAND – Vote for yours now.

Brexit, greed and fear..

​How imoderate…

I noticed a very sad and almost universal practice of deleting strongly held views, comments and posts offered for sharing with people, many of whom openly said they don’t understand nor have enough (any?) facts or explanation as to what it’s all about, in groups and on the pages of Facebook, LinkedIn,  etc….
Some people deleted everything regardless of how even handed words might be whilst some people were noticeably more biased. 

In one case a site ‘moderator’ posted his own comments that he “voted to leave” & “it’s just not wotking”; the first is a political statement he’d said he was denying everyone else – that’s called censorship, and in this context, political censorship; contrary to the precepts of free speech, and the second patently untrue or neither he nor anyone else would be working or have a job.

How can a leap of faith into the unknown be a sensible thing to do, most especially when the chief protagonists (Farage, Boris, Gove, IDS) patently lied to us all, appealing to the bassist interests of self and prejudice; greed and fear.

As I have said many times … #GodHelpUsAll if the international motor industry pulls out of the & UK – mark my words, every major (and SME) business in the UK is preparing it’s post the UK’s pressing of the Article 50 Button, response, plan, strategy, and every single one of those plans will consider scenarios such as, what do we do if:

Our customers leave?

Our competitors leave?

Both our customers and competitors leave?

No one else leaves?

And then questions such as; ‘what if our customers/competitors move to this country, or that….’

Endless permutations will be considered and plans A, B, C…. etc. prepared.

However, the smart ones won’t wait; the smart ones made their outline plans long before the referendum,  never expecting the result…. ‘ in the highly unlikely scenario that there is a majority vote to “Leave” we will start packing and catch an early plane before the fares (the costs) start to rise; and slowly and quietly international manufacturing (for starters) will depart our shores for lower cost, lower wage, more grateful shores with guaranteed tarrif free access to and from the EU, perhaps in Spain, Poland, Romania, Croatia, etc. where unemployment is high, workers cheaper and more pliant, and governments (and people) more grateful.  And do you know who will help pay for this mass migration of economic wellbeing. … The EU!  This is a war which we will not win and for which we will be massively punished as a lesson to anyone else considering the same stupidity.

People in the frieght forwarding business will make a lot of money for a xhort time, exporting our manufacturing industries to Europe (the EU), India, China, Eastern Europe, South Africa, South America and beyond. And our children will emigrate en mass to the antipodes,  South Africa, Canada, The EU (France, Germany, Holland, Spain, etc.), and/or with their jobs and their employer to pastures new.

As for the UK’s so called ‘migrant problem’; don’t worry, there won’t be any work for them in the UK either, so they will leave and go where the work is. Not only will there be no work, there will be no money either, to pay pensions and other benefits, wages will crash, unemployment will soar, interest rates will rise to fight inflation…….

PS.  I take no delight in being right just fear and shame for my country and the prospect of not seeing my children in my old age, when the NHS has insufficient resources to keep me alive and whichever country (ies) my kids have moved to, won’t let me in because i’m too old and they have an Australian points based VISA system.


#what have you done